Predicted grades and the UCAS reference: what your school sends
Every UCAS application carries predicted grades and a school reference. The student writes neither, but the student can still affect both.
Every UCAS application carries two things the student does not write: predicted grades and a reference from the school. Universities use the predictions to judge whether you are likely to meet an offer. They use the reference to understand the school behind those grades. Students cannot write either, but they can influence both.
Who sets predicted grades?
Subject teachers set them, often with a head of department checking for consistency. UCAS asks schools to make predictions that are achievable and based on evidence, and to set them without regard to where a student is applying. Schools differ in the evidence they use. Some rely on end of Year 12 exams, others on early Year 13 mocks.
Can you ask for a higher prediction?
You can ask what your prediction rests on, and whether new evidence would change it. That is a fair conversation. Pushing for a grade you are unlikely to achieve is not, because an offer you then miss is worse than an offer set at the right level. If your predictions sit one grade below your first choices, our entry requirement guides show how many good courses sit at each level. Start with History at AAB and Economics at AAB.
What goes in the UCAS reference?
Since 2024 entry the reference has had three sections sharing one 4,000-character limit. The first is a general statement about the school and is compulsory. The second covers any extenuating circumstances that affected the student's education. The third is for supportive information about the applicant and the course. The reference now does less advocacy than it once did and more explaining of context.
How can you help your referee?
Tell them your course early, and earlier still if you are applying to Oxford, Cambridge or medicine. Give them a short note on the academic work you are proudest of, especially reading or projects beyond the syllabus. If something has disrupted your studies, such as illness or a change of school, tell them privately so it can go in the second section. Ask for the school's internal deadline. It is usually weeks before the UCAS deadline of 18:00 UK time on 13 January 2027.
What about international schools?
Students at IB or American schools still need predicted grades on a UCAS form. Oxford says that applications without predictions for pending qualifications are at a significant disadvantage. If your school has not written a UCAS reference before, show your counsellor the UCAS adviser guidance early. Our piece on IB or A-levels covers how each curriculum is read. The Russell Group section of our Resources page links to the official UCAS pages.
Frequently asked questions
Do universities trust predicted grades? They read them alongside GCSE or equivalent results and the school's context, which is why the reference matters.
Does the reference have to come from a teacher? It comes from your school or college, usually written by a tutor or adviser with input from subject teachers.
